QQQQ wave count updated

Working from the same count posted last Friday, it’s unclear whether the C wave is in already or if we are working toward a bigger 5 up C wave. The count worked perfectly.  As anticipated on Oct. 21st, the current corrective wave is taking longer in time than the 4th wave of lesser degree.  Once the weak shorts have been sufficiently culled we should see a resumption of the downtrend.  It may be after the election.  I very much doubt the bottom is in, but part of being unbiased is realizing that the market has a mind of its own.  The funny money stimulus and policies should kick in sometime next year.  The next economic growth period is being engineered as we speak, and will only foster more imbalances in the system.  The other alternative that I can see is a totally loss of faith in the US economic system due to too much intervention (a la Japan in the 90’s), in which case the K-wave winter will be very cold.  The US will have to come to grips with the hypocritical notion that it believes in free markets.  Because no such free markets exist, especially when those markets don’t go up.

The AAPL fractal posted two days ago is up nearly 10%, I missed it, but hopefully some of you got long when the last trend line broke, or at least didn’t stay short.  I would have taken profits with a quick 10%, but it may head up to $115-120 area eventually.

8:26 PM

Predictions hit

QQQQ is filling out the expanded\running flat, as predicted last week.  BIDU looks to be forming that ending diagonal.  RIMM bounced slightly above $40 (projected prize zone for bottom on Monday) for a double bottom look.  And AAPL filled out the previously posted fractal pretty well, it just took a little longer than anticipated.  All in all, not bad… I hope you didn’t get so caught up in the bearishness that you missed some points to the upside.  You have to realize that the market is in no hurry to continue the main trend when there are too many bears.

1:00 PM

The AAPL fractal never broke the downtrend line, it was so pretty though!  I’m still watching the aforementioned stocks as they approach my targets, the market hasn’t been in any rush to get there.

10:09 AM

Message for the day

The only times you should be scared to take a trade is when you don’t have risk protection and you’re scared of admitting you might be wrong.

AAPL fractal

This is not labeled in Elliott Wave, just a fractal.

9:25 AM

*easy to pick a low risk stop loss on this one…

RIMM wave count revisited

Working off a slightly altered count, I am looking for an expanding triangle wave IV.  Be careful, the second wave (typically called B) hasn’t proven to be finished yet, but I like the $40 area as a target end zone. $40 was already hit intraday, but it may need to close near there, or not.  It looks like a possible fractal, where the first wave is itself a 5 wave expanding triangle.  The situation kind of reminds me of this previous pattern from QQQQ. If it gets volatile enough it could run to $70-$80 by the last wave.

Some might ask, why not go with the obvious 5 down here?  Time considerations lead me to belive that we are in the middle of an as-of-yet incomplete corrective wave.

12:12 AM

BIDU

This is the count I’m working with.  I chose to go with the triangle B wave because the circled movement doesn’t look impulsive.  Couple that with an E wave that ends below the .618A retracement, I think it makes for a good count.  This accounts for the overlapping C wave, which looks to be an ending diagonal still forming.  The 2 on that ED may not be in yet, if it becomes an expanded flat.  The expanded flat seems somewhat likely since BIDU has been extremely volatile with a lot of retracements.  I like $165-$175 for the ED to end. $175 was hit already intraday Friday (denoted by the red line) so keep a failed 5th wave in mind, or the whole pattern was an expanding diagonal and already in.

6:04 PM

QQQQ wave count revisited

This is where an expanded flat can cause trouble for those overeager to catch the resumption of the main trend.  Watch for an “election rally” C wave.  I don’t use elliott wave to predict the far future, just possible short term gyrations.  We’ll make sense of the bigger picture as it happens.

5:11 PM

GOOG

GOOG is down about $30 from this week’s call that a flat correction ended.  I would take profits here, if you haven’t already.  The larger triangle is actually still working and we may be set for the E-wave soon.  Either way, you know what they say about pigs.  Keep in mind that my time frame is extremely short term. I will post more on that this afternoon…

3:35 PM

Anything can still happen

No matter which pattern you think may be developing, it is critical to remember that anything can happen at anytime.  No matter how much time you spend studying wave counts or any other technical indicators, the market owes you nothing.  It’s easy to realize this intellectually, but hard to grasp it emotionally.  Everyone sees a triangle developing in our current markets, and what happens?  The market’s outcome is changed as a result.  Currently the NASDAQ looks to be forming an expanded flat.  Once everyone anticipates the resumption of the downtrend, the C wave kicks in.  I will try to post a count soon.  But I suspect this may be the pattern that plays out.  The SPX and Dow may be forming a complex double\triple three, or still could put in an expanded flat as well.

8:21 PM